CFO Cash Focus Is Up, but Scenario Planning Fell From 41% to 24%

Finance chiefs are spending more of their time on cash than they were a year ago, and less of it asking what happens if the plan breaks. Both facts come from the same survey, published in mid-September, and together they describe a function that has gotten better at watching the number and worse at preparing for it to move. That would be a minor imbalance in a forgiving year. It is a larger one now, because the buffer that used to absorb a surprise, customers paying a little early, has vanished.

The Job Became Cash Management, and Scenario Work Slipped

American Express surveyed 999 senior finance executives across 14 countries, and CFOTech's summary of the findings shows 74% saying cash flow and finance management now consumes more of their role, up from 65% the year before. Half named cash flow management as the area most likely to demand their attention over the next 12 months, the leading priority tested. Pressure on working capital is nearly universal: 94% report some level of strain, and 55% call growing working capital a strategic priority.

The odd part is what moved in the other direction. According to a separate summary of the same research, the share prioritizing scenario modeling dropped from 41% to 24%, and the share with responsibility for geopolitical and economic risk planning fell from 42% to 30%. The survey does not explain why, so any reading is interpretation. One plausible one is that near-term cash has crowded out contingency work: when liquidity is tight, the weekly position feels more urgent than a range of futures.

Technology is absorbing some of the load. Prioritizing improved forecasting rose from 32% to 44%, and increased automation efforts rose from 32% to 43%. A full 82% report significant investment in automating B2B payments, and 59% say AI is already delivering measurable gains in cash flow, forecasting accuracy or working capital. But a sharper forecast and a scenario plan answer different questions. The forecast says what the base case looks like. The scenarios say what the business does when the base case fails.

Customers Stopped Paying Early, So the Cushion Is Gone

The PYMNTS Working Capital Index, published September 28, explains why that gap matters. Based on a July survey of 120 CFOs and treasurers at U.S. and Canadian firms with $50 million to $1 billion in annual revenue, it found that two-thirds of receivables now land exactly on the due date. Customers have stopped paying early, which removes a quiet source of slack that many cash forecasts assumed without saying so. The sample is modest, so treat the figures as directional, but they line up with the Amex picture.

The same index shows borrowing intensifying. External credit use reached 83% of firms, and 61% stack two or more solutions, combining bank lines, corporate cards and other instruments. For the first time since 2023, cash flow management and emergencies beat growth as the reason to borrow, 45% to 38%. A firm using several instruments at once has more moving parts to model, not fewer.

Late payment is the pressure behind it. Versapay's 2026 Cash Flow Clarity Report, a survey of 400 finance leaders in the U.S. and Canada, found 69% saying late customer payments increased over the prior 12 months. Another 78% said unexpected receivables problems were forcing changes to capital investments, hiring plans and borrowing decisions. Collections surprises are no longer a back-office irritation. They reach the capital plan.

Predictability, Not Tooling, Separates the Leaders

The most useful finding in the PYMNTS index is about what does not differentiate. All of the top performers use AI in treasury, and so do 97% of the bottom performers. What separates the groups is predictability: 70% of top performers report financing needs that stay constant through the year, against just 3% at the bottom. Owning the tool is table stakes. Building a business whose cash needs do not swing is the advantage.

Scenario planning is one of the few disciplines that produces that steadiness before the surprise arrives. It identifies which assumption, whether payment timing, credit availability or demand, would force an unplanned draw, and it lets the team pre-arrange the response. The data suggests many finance functions have invested in seeing cash more clearly while giving up some of the work that prepares them to act on what they see.

The Playbook: Put the Scenarios Back Next to the Forecast

• Rebuild a small scenario set around cash: Run a base case, a slow-collections case and a tighter-credit case, and refresh them every quarter rather than once a year.
• Stress-test the due-date assumption: If two-thirds of receivables arrive on the due date, remove any early-payment cushion from the forecast and measure the effect of a few days of slippage.
• Track forecast accuracy, not only the forecast: Report the variance between projected and actual cash each period so the team learns where its assumptions are weakest.
• Map the borrowing stack: List every instrument in use, with its cost, covenants and triggers, so a draw on one line is never a surprise to another.
• Automate the repetitive receivables work: Free analyst time from invoicing, cash application and collections follow-up, and redirect it to planning and analysis.
• Name an owner for risk planning: With responsibility for risk planning falling from 42% to 30%, assign one person to keep scenarios current and bring them to every capital decision.